Early this week, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced that there would be a general election in Spain on Nov. 29 this year.
Sánchez’s party, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) has been the leader of a coalition since 2023, but a weak one, dependent on the votes of right-wing Catalan pro-independence party Junts.
As such, Sánchez has struggled to get any meaningful policy through the parliament.
This was emphasized following the Maricarmen Abascal scandal that threw an unflattering light on the housing crisis in the country.
An 87-year-old woman, Abascal, was evicted from her home on a stretcher after the block of flats she lived on was purchased by an investment company, which then hiked up the rent, which she was unable to pay.
Such was the outcry that an agreement was eventually struck between Abascal and the company but tragically she died on Tuesday evening this week.
On the back of this scandal, Sánchez tried to get new housing legislation through the parliament but it was blocked by the conservative People’s Party (PP), hard-right Vox, and Junts.
Hence the election.
But this upcoming election is not just crucial for Spain, but also kick-starts an important period for the rest of Europe. Including Spain, four of the EU’s biggest members will have elections.
In April 2027, France will go to the polls; elections are expected in Poland in October 2027; Italy will hold elections next year, too.
Estonia, Finland, Greece and Slovakia will also have parliamentary elections.
With the new insurgent right in the ascendancy in Spain, France and Italy, by the start of 2028, the ruling parties of the European Union (EU) could look very different indeed.
With bishops frequently running afoul of these groups, primarily on immigration, if they were to take more control of the continent, it is not unfair to expect significant consequences for the hierarchy.
Spain
The issues between Vox and Spain’s bishops have been regularly documented on these pages. In short: Vox, a party populated by Catholics, have frequently engaged in public — and at times personal — spats with Spain’s bishops when they criticize the party’s anti-immigration position.
On the other hand, Spain’s bishops have also come into conflict with Sánchez’s government. This was most apparent when the the president of the country’s episcopal conference, Archbishop Luis Argüello of Valladolid, last December called for “a vote of confidence, a motion of no confidence, or giving the people a voice” due to the gridlock in Spain’s parliament.
There followed a slew of public statements to the effect of: Spain’s bishops don’t call the shots anymore. But less than a year later, a general election was called.
According to Julio Luis Martínez Martínez, a Jesuit priest and professor in moral theology at the University of Comillas, Madrid, there are more important issues at play than just housing.
He told Crux Now that the corruption scandals engulfing Sánchez and his inner circle; “the invasion of Ceuta”; the controversial decision to give amnesty to those who orchestrated the pro-Catalan referendum to win the votes of pro-Catalan groups; immigration; the threat of war in Europe; and the “the deterioration of the state’s fundamental institutions” are all key electoral issues.
“Some of these issues are so significant that I do not think they can be kept out of the campaign, even if the parties would like to do so,” he said.
With Spain experiencing similar levels of polarization as many other Western countries, he said Catholics should vote “guided by the principles of the Church’s Social Doctrine: the common good, the universal destination of goods, subsidiarity, solidarity, and social justice, which encompasses participation and the preferential option for the poor.”
“In particular,” he added, “I believe that, given the situation we are living through, we should give special consideration to whether politics is directed toward the common good rather than the polarization of society and the disregard for truth in public life.”
Most polling — but not all — suggests that PP will be the biggest party in parliament but that they will need to govern with Vox in order to have a majority.
On the question of Vox gaining power, Martínez said the party “takes a hard-line position on immigration and has no qualms about portraying immigrants as criminals for electoral gain.”
“This,” he added, “wins it votes among certain sections of the population, but it directly conflicts with the Church’s moral position.”
He hoped that if Vox were to gain power, the influence of the more moderate PP would prevent the party’s more extremists tendencies from exerting too much influence.
“For me, the great unknown is how Vox would behave in government, because campaigning to win support is one thing, while governing is another. Once in government, its leaders would probably be unable to rely on the populist rhetoric they use so freely today,” he said.
He said he believed the leader of PP was a moderate who had been squeezed into taking more extreme positions by the rise of Vox. He also believed Sánchez’s government “has pursued a populist style of politics in which the absence of truth, social polarization, and corruption have run rampant and become the basic strategies of political action.”
For the Church, then, regardless of the outcome, the likelihood is that it will need to continue to navigate an increasingly fractured political situation.
France
There will be presidential and parliamentary elections in France in April 2027, with Marine Le Pen of the National Rally currently polling as the best-placed presidential candidate.
Emmanuel Macron, who has served as president since 2017, has not ruled out running for a third term, but French electoral rules mean he won’t be able to do so until the next election in 2032.
This means that, should Le Pen reach the second round of the presidential election as is widely expected, who she faces will be extremely important as it won’t be the seasoned and wily operator, Macron.
A victory for Le Pen has the potential to be disruptive not just to the EU, for she has Eurosceptic tendencies, but also for the Church on a familiar topic: Immigration.
In 2021, after Pope Francis expressed concern about the far-right in Europe, Le Pen hit back.
“I am convinced that many believers would be delighted if the Pope would focus on what happens in the churches and not at the ballot box,” she said.
If Le Pen gets in in 2027, she wants to call a referendum to allow changes to the French constitution.
These proposed changes would involve stricter immigration laws, a weakening of birthright citizenship in favour of citizenship from French parentage, and the introduction of a “national priority” which would give French citizens priority of foreigners in areas such as jobs and housing.
Of course, there is a limit to how reliable electoral polls can be. In 2022, Le Pen reached the second round of the presidential elections in France, but was defeated by Macron.
Is there anyone else in France who can beat her this time?
Poland
Polish elections are expected in October next year. Donald Tusk is currently prime minister of Poland and in charge of a coalition that is pro-EU and more centrist in outlook.
According to Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor of politics at the University of Sussex, what is at stake in the next general election for the Church is whether a government is elected that continues the current coalition’s path of being rhetorically “anti-clerical and secularist”, although not prioritizing it in practice, or a return to a government similar to the Law and Justice one which was “much more sympathetic to the church’s agenda.”
Szczerbiak told Crux Now that even if the next government is the latter kind, it is not straightforward for the Polish church because right-wing politicians are likely to see the church “as much more a kind of supplicant.”
“They would say, you need us as much if not more than we need you,” he said. “Because we’re the people that can be relied upon to, broadly speaking, defend your interests and your political agenda.”
Although Poland is experiencing the secularization that the rest of Europe is — albeit at a slower rate — the Church is still, to Szczerbiak, “an important civil society actor.” But it is aware it is in a weaker position than it once was.
In Poland, unlike many other European countries, immigration is less likely to be a divisive topic between left and right in the election. Szczerbiak said that in the 2015 election, one of the main reasons the Law and Justice party won was because they were so tough on immigration.
The losing parties vowed never again to lose vote on this issue.
“Indeed, on occasions, Donald Tusk and the main and civic coalition have actually tried to outflank Law and Justice by saying they are tougher on immigration, and on these kind of issues, than Law and Justice,” Szczerbiak said.
“So that’s tricky because if you have figures within the Church who are criticizing migration policy from a Catholic social teaching perspective, it’s going into a bit of a vacuum, because the two main political forces are both on the same page as far as this is concerned,” he added.
He said Polish society is polarized into two very different camps. At the heart of the divide is “completely different conceptions of the nature of the Polish state that emerged as a result of the collapse of communism.”
“People like Donald Tusk or the governing parties at the moment of different political views, basically believe that the state that emerged from as a result of the collapse of communism was for the most part, a consolidating liberal democracy. And they accept the elites and institutions that emerged as legitimate in a sense,” he said.
“The political right completely rejects that. They argue that basically the transition to democracy was flawed, that it was part of an elite bargain between the outgoing regime and the liberal left of the opposition, who in a sense came to an agreement whereby they created a state and institutions and elites that are just not valid,” he explained.
“So the next election in Poland will be about the extent to which the two sides can mobilize their own supporters or their own supporters don’t become demobilized,” he added.
Italy
The Mediterranean country will have elections next year, but as of yet no date has been decided. Similarly to France and Spain, Italy will see a huge assault from a hard-right party, although polling suggests a left-wing coalition could be formed.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing coalition have ruled Italy since 2022, the longest-running government in Italy since World War Two.
Meloni has recently pushed through a more proportional electoral system which she says will lead to greater stability, whereas opposition parties have accused her of stacking the deck in her favor.
Among other changes, any coalition that gets 42% of the votes will win extra seats.
According to a recent survey by Ipsos Doxa, the centre-left parties would have enough to form a governing coalition if they can overcome internal divisions and convince two more radical parties to join.
Therefore, Meloni may turn to hard-right army general Roberto Vannacci, and his new party, National Future (FN) party.
Up until now, she has ruled out working with Vannacci but with his party currently polling better than two of her coalition partners — the anti-immigrant League, and centre-right Forza Italia — her conviction may well be put to the test.
Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, and deputy prime minister, had a number of run-ins with Pope Francis on immigration (a theme is emerging here).
In 2019, Francis had a photo taken of him wearing a badge that said “Let’s open the ports.”
“He takes care of souls; I take care of the five million poor Italians. I open the ports only to those with permission,” was Salvini’s response.
That year there was also the incident of the ship carrying migrants, the Gregoretti. Salvini prevented the disembarking of the ship that was carrying 132 migrants, leaving it stranded at sea in summer in for five days.
Eventually, Salvini announced that five other European countries and structures in the Italian Catholic Church had agreed to take on the migrants, meaning they would be allowed to disembark immediately.
Given that Vannacci is widely considered further to the right than Meloni and Salvini, it is not hard to imagine conflict with the Church arising on immigration if he were to gain some power.
And the Italian bishops have already publicly criticized him for his comments in 2024 that disabled children should be separated in classrooms.
Bishop Francesco Savino of Cassano all’Jonio, vice president of the Italian Bishops Conference (CEI), told Italian media that “a cultural vision of life is at stake here.”
“These statements take us back to the darkest periods of our history,” he said, insisting that “inclusion is a sign of civilization.”
Europe and the Church face a key year
Making political predictions is a dangerous game and election results often defy polling, but at the very least it seems the insurgent right won’t be going away anytime soon.
Just what their influence will be in the coming years in Europe will be clearer at the end of 2027.
Pope Leo XIV, with his visits to Spain and France, has shown he is engaged with Europe, even while Francis’ emphasis on the new areas of influence in the Church has been maintained.
Thus, if these new parties continue to gain influence across the continent, it won’t be surprising to see more headlines of bishops clashing with the politicians of the new hard right.